Nouriel Roubini, credited with predicting the economic crisis before most other prognosticators, says he expects the US economy to grow by 0.5 to 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
The man known as Dr. Doom, however, isn’t exuberant. In an interview with Newsweek and The Washington Post, Roubini says unemployment could exceed 10% this year and then rise above 11% next year. But Roubini joins a chorus of voices that the worst may well be over.
I do agree that there is an improvement in the sense that the rate of contraction is not going to be as much as it has been in the last couple of quarters, but I still believe that the bottom of the economy [will be seen] toward the beginning or middle of next year. So my views are more bearish than the consensus.
via RGE Monitor
As for that moniker, Dr. Doom, Roubini demurs: “I am Dr. Realist.” Roubini credits government moves for the improvement — but phrases it in characteristically muted tones:
I don’t believe we are going to end up in a near-depression. Six months ago I was more worried about an L-shaped near-depression. Today, after the very aggressive policy actions taken by the U.S. and other countries . . . we are, instead, in the middle of a U.
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