ADP may foreshadow disappointing May jobs number on Friday; growth slowing

This morning, the stock market took a beating after ADP reported a weak 135,000 gain in private payrolls last month. April’s numbers were also revised lowerto a gain of 113,000 from 119,000.

That doesn’t bode well for the Labor Department report on jobs, due this Friday, writes Jack Ablin, chief investment officer, BMO Private Bank. In an email, Ablin elaborates:

Economists are forecasting an expansion of 178,000 net new private payroll positions in May.  Based on a cozy historical relationship between ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ private payrolls, a simple regression would imply a disappointing net gain of only 139,000 jobs.

Here’s a graph showing the relationship between the two numbers. Doesn’t look good:

Image

Overall, job growth appears to be slowing (graphic via MarketWatch)

Job growth slowing in 2013.

Job growth slowing in 2013.

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One thought on “ADP may foreshadow disappointing May jobs number on Friday; growth slowing

  1. Pingback: Wednesday links: not go-to experts | Abnormal Returns

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