The best place to find out what is really happening in jobs

The core of the labor force is weakening; baby boomers are working longer – via Calculated Risk

Whenever I want the inside skinny on the jobs numbers, I turn to the Calculated Risk blog. No one can beat Bill McBride for his clear, steady tone (even when it felt as if the world was ending) or for his command of the numbers.  And the charts are to die for.

The labor force numbers released last Friday for March were surprisingly weak — only 88,000 new jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls, less than half the number predicted. The unemployment number edged down to 7.6%, but only because so many people gave up looking for work.

The participation rate in the labor force has been a major topic of debate over the past few years. Baby boomers are retiring, which would naturally reduce what is known as the participation rate in the labor force. There are other factors of well — both bad and not so bad.

Let me share with you what Bill McBride sees:

  • Fewer 16- to 24-year-olds are in the labor force because they are going to school more. That’ should be a plus for the economy.
  • The number of 25- to 54-year-olds is declining — a negative. Those are the prime working and saving years. The downtrend is a function of the recession and structural changes in the economy. (See chart on left; click on the graphic to enlarge.)
  • More oldsters are working longer (some say so they can keep their health benefits). But there aren’t enough of this cohort hanging in to boost the overall participation rate.

For more details, go read the Calculated Rate blog post here. Eye opening.

Steubenville women, Princeton women

steubenville_princetonSteubenville sits 375 miles west of Princeton University, and in many ways, worlds apart.  But when it comes to boys being boys and girls blaming one another — and themselves — for male animal spirits, the two are not nearly as far apart as the gallons of ink spilled on the sordid Steubenville rape story would imply.

Steubenville, of course, is the down-in-the-mouth Ohio town where football was the only ray of light. No wonder the local town heroes were allowed to spin out of control. The subtext: If you’re prosperous or largely employed, things like this can’t happen.

If only. I confess to reading rather obsessively about the Steubenville rapists. In my search for insights, I stumbled onto a trio of troubling stories at my alma mater — Princeton University. It was not what I was expecting.

#1: Old Nassau is just like everyone else, at least when it comes to sexual assault — it gets swept under the covers

In 2008, Princeton conducted a survey on sexual “experiences” on campus, but never published the results. The campus paper recently got hold of the poll and discovered that sexual assault was alive and well. Why hadn’t the university released the data? No one else does, a spokesman told The Daily Princetonian. Anyway, they were well within the national average. Why draw attention to something that makes an institution of superior higher learning pretty darned average when it comes to everyday human contact? What really matters here?

According to the Sexual Experience Survey about 15% of women were sexually humiliated and attacked. Only a fraction reported it to the administration or the police — perhaps because they are ashamed or because they blame themselves.  See stories No 2 and 3, below.

#2 Jocks might not be the only untouchables

According to a 2010 story in Gawker, a Princeton coed did in fact work up the nerve to accuse another student of rape. But only to university authorities, not the local police. That was in 2006. The name of the accused: Griffith Rutherford Harsh V, the son of billionaire, one-time gubernatorial candidate, and major Princeton donor Meg Whitman. Why didn’t the accuser go to the police? Gawker reports:

The girl consulted her friends, some of whom worried about the “social repercussions” of accusing such a high-profile student of rape. She was “terrified,” according to her friend. “She didn’t want to press charges because it’s Meg Whitman’s son. She didn’t want to go through that. She didn’t go to the police. She didn’t get a rape kit.”

Her support network said No! don’t go there. In the end, the university didn’t take action because it didn’t feel it had sufficient evidence to do so, the story says. Perhaps a police investigation would have uncovered the necessary evidence to incriminate or exculpate the accused. But we’ll never know.

#3 Steubenville women, Princeton women

Every time I read about the Steubenville victim’s former best girlfriends, I cringe. They live in an overtly vulgar culture where women are basically sex objects, to put it politely.  But there’s a code of silence. The females have agreed to pretend they are slightly more than sexual objects. Rather than galvanizing them to assert their self-worth, the Steubenville attack entrenched them in their status because the code had been broken most spectacularly on Twitter and YouTube. This was no time for mercy. The BFFs became worst enemies as they demoted the victim to drunken slut who got what she deserved.

Shockingly, educated women appear to shrink from asserting their sexual integrity as well. Read on.

Let’s return to Princeton. 2011. A gathering of super-successful alumnae entitled “She Roars.” The dramatis personae include:  Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Teach for America founder Wendy Kopp, and waddyaknow — Meg Whitman.

Tina de Varon, a successful singer who graduated in the 1970s, was also there. In a story for the Christian Monitor, she says the Tigerlillies, a women-only a cappella group, performed for the crowd. After they finished their set, a male group, the Tigertones, came on stage; but one “lost” Tigerlilly remained. The men surrounded her, pretended to unzip their flies and then suggestively moved their hips as they sang.

Gang Bang, the musical.

Not a single one of Princeton’s shining alumnae had the presence of mind to stand up and say the gig is up, boys. You’re not dealing with some backward, uninformed, low-level girls. We are Princeton women. We’ve been leaning in and pushing back for years. About time you got the message.

Instead, de Varon left the conference quite shaken. Because on a rainy night in 1973, a Princeton rugby player raped her in her own dormitory room. She had never reported it.

Coda

From the Village Voice:

It was the audience that was shocked at a Michelle Shocked concert last night when the born-again alt-folk singer went on a rant about how “God hates fags” and how she lives in fear of gay marriage.

I’ll give this to the audience, though:

They cleared out in horror.

h/t @ledbetreuters

Why we need Rhett Butler as a hiring authority

Rhett_Butler_by_khinson

Image by Khinson

Hiring authorities are taking longer than ever to fill vacancies, the New York Times recently reported.  Candidates interview five or six times and leave empty-handed. Sometimes the jobs never seem to get filled. I know that on LinkedIn I have seen a number of  ads for the same journalism jobs  pop up again and again — for more than year. In case you haven’t heard, there are plenty of unemployed journos dying for full-time work. What’s up with that?

Blame it on the glut of candidates. The more choices we have in life, the harder it is to choose. “We don’t know our preferences that well, says behavioral economist Dan Ariely in a TED Talk back in 2009. This is why we need Rhett Butler. He’s a guy who finally figures out what he wants and acts  on it. Ariely explains:

We have an irrational compulsion to keep doors open. It’s just the way we’re wired. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to close them. Think about a fictional episode: Rhett Butler leaving Scarlett O’Hara in Gone with the Wind, in the scene when Scarlett clings to him and begs him, “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett, after enduring too much from Scarlett, and finally having his fill of it, says, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” It’s not by chance that this line has been voted the most memorable in cinematographic history. It’s the emphatic closing of a door that gives it widespread appeal. And it should be a reminder to all of us that we have doors—little and big ones—which we ought to shut.

Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational

So, dear, Hiring Authorities, choose a candidate. Close the door on the others.

Just for fun, here’s Ariel’s hilarious TED talk on how we let outside forces control our decision-making, largely because we just don’t know what we want or we get too vermischt when presented with more than two choices. Word to the wise: Before agreeing to surgery, demand your doctor present all the other choices he is rejecting!

 

Stocks average 24% gain for year when they finish Jan and Feb higher

2013 is shaping up to be a great year for stocks — if history is any guide. I found this in my inbox, courtesy of  David Lutz, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus.

Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ reports that there have been 26 times since 1945 that the S&P 500 scored gains in both January and February – In all 26 instances, Stovall says the “500″ recorded a positive calendar year total return, averaging an advance—including dividends—of 24 percent and posting full-year results that were in the single digits just twice: 1987 and 2011.

The S&P 500 ended February up 1.1% — it’s fourth consecutive monthly jump.

Move over VIX, Apple is the new fear gauge

Meet the new fear gauge: Apple. It’s accessible. Everyone knows it and probably owns more than they ever knew. It’s everywhere — in ETFs and mutual funds and discretionary stock accounts. Its products are in your office, your back pocket, or favorite reading chair. And it can generate more emotion than the Volatility Index because of it.

So it may feel surprising that over the past two months, the price performance on the VIX and Apple are nearly mirror images (see here): Apple has lopped off more than one-quarter of its market value while the VIX has zigged and zagged its way higher, dipping earlier this week as the market unraveled.

Yet action in the VIX  (which has been setting new trading volume records) seems ho-hum and Apple is the bone-shaker.  On StockTwits, the VIX might get the hashtag #wakeup — in tune with a WSJ blog: Vix hits the snooze button again. But the stock-no-one-could-stop has gone from #AppleOnFire to #AppleUnderFire.

There’s a lot of head-scratching on action on both the VIX and Apple. “Why won’t the VIX go higher,” asks Adam Warner in his blog. Steven Place asks on his options blog ”Is the VIX too complacent?” From a technical viewpoint, the answer is no, he says. If you look at the VIX going out 90 days, you’ll see a lot more anxiety in the market, he writes. But the current index — which factors in expectations for the next 30 days — is pretty tame. And that is what you would might expect during the upcoming holiday season.

Apple is just as puzzling. Paul R. La Monica from The Buzz @CNNMoney.com, tweeted yesterday in disbelief: “AAPL now down 25% from its all-time high. But forward P/E just 10.5. And it has dividend yielding 2%. When will the pain stop?”  Scott Murray tries to put the plunge in context, saying that now Apple is in the right volatility zone; its run-up was actually the anomaly.

To me, Apple is feeling like the crucible for all investor fears — both professional and small. Taxes on both capital gains and dividends are likely to go up — by how much? On a practical matter, best to lock in gains now. It’s not just that. The world is changing in so many unpredictable ways, both globally and at Apple. Through these past years of turmoil and triumph, Apple has been steady, creating products that consumers love because they make users feel special when doing something quite ordinary — like sending a text or listening to a song. Steve Jobs understood that if you infuse the humdrum with a beautiful aesthetic, life would be a little sweeter. But with Jobs gone, the temple to beauty doesn’t seem inviolate. Even Apple is now offering perks to keep its staff; working there doesn’t seem like a privilege. In a larger sense, Apple was a symbol of the prowess of American enterprise. And now all of that seems in doubt yet again. The election, rather than settling things, has heightened everyone’s sense of just how difficult the road ahead is and how serious the task. And so as our confidence gets sapped, Apple takes a bruising. It’s the more perfect proxy for what many investors are feeling now.

Oops: Fat fingers boost mobile ad numbers

Beware the Fat Finger. It’s not just for traders anymore.

Guess what. Click-thru rates on mobile are pretty uniformly superior to rates on your desktop. But it’s not because users love ads on their phones more. It’s the fat-finger phenomenon.

Sacha Xavier Reich, a partner at neo@Oglivy social media advertising, points out the obvious: Phone screens are so small that people are much more likely to click on an ad by accident. And isn’t that annoying? So anyone taking a look to see well a certain social media company is doing in mobile, should ask not only about the click-through rate but also how long is the user staying on the brand site and whether the user is actually buying anything.

I wrote about the outlook for mobile advertising on Facebook and other possible sources of revenue for time.com this morning. But that Fat Finger Fact is my favorite part of the story. Read it here.